Pope Leo XIV Election Surprises Bookmakers and Bettors

This marks a historic moment, as Prevost becomes the first American to ascend to the papacy.

The election came after an intense day of deliberations. In the morning, the 133 Cardinals failed to reach a decision, but by the afternoon, white smoke rose from the Sistine Chapel, signaling the end of the wait. Prevost, a missionary who served in South America and a former bishop in Peru, has now assumed the position of the 267th Pope, ready to carry on the legacy of Pope Francis.

The Day Didn't End Well for Bettors

While the Catholic Church celebrated the election of Pope Leo XIV, bettors were left reeling from the unexpected outcome. Many had placed large bets on Cardinal Pietro Parolin, who was believed to be the most likely candidate due to his moderate positions. Parolin's standing as the frontrunner led to a heavy concentration of bets on his election, with odds heavily favoring him.

However, Cardinal Prevost, whose odds of becoming Pope were a staggering +5000, was not expected to succeed. In fact, BetMGM Ontario and Kalshi both gave him only a 1% chance of winning. With 90% of all bets placed on Prevost's election, the surprising outcome marked a big loss for those who had wagered on the wrong candidate, resulting in a win for the books and prediction markets that allowed customers to bet on the papal election.